Incrementally wiser

Birthdays are traditionally a time of celebration. A get together with friends and family, presents, parties and the like. For me, more importantly, they are a time for reflection. Reflections on the road I’ve traveled, thinking over what I’ve learned along the way. I daresay some of these might seem like common sense, self evident … More Incrementally wiser

Process vs Outcome: Consider Base Rates & Alternative Histories

What if Germany and the Axis powers had won World War 2? It is a provocative question, one that has become the subject of a lot of theories over the years, even spawning a whole genre of alternative fiction. Yet it is not as far fetched as it might seem, with Germany enjoying early successes … More Process vs Outcome: Consider Base Rates & Alternative Histories

The Darien Debacle: Scotland’s imprudent investment

Background At the close of the 17th century, Scotland’s economic situation was grim. Four years of failed harvest had resulted in famine and depopulation. Trade with the Baltic and France had slumped due to protectionist trade barriers, and King William’s wars on the continent were being paid for through high taxation on the people. The final nail … More The Darien Debacle: Scotland’s imprudent investment