Process vs Outcome: Consider Base Rates & Alternative Histories

What if Germany and the Axis powers had won World War 2? It is a provocative question, one that has become the subject of a lot of theories over the years, even spawning a whole genre of alternative fiction. Yet it is not as far fetched as it might seem, with Germany enjoying early successes … More Process vs Outcome: Consider Base Rates & Alternative Histories

The Darien Debacle: Scotland’s imprudent investment

Background At the close of the 17th century, Scotland’s economic situation was grim. Four years of failed harvest had resulted in famine and depopulation. Trade with the Baltic and France had slumped due to protectionist trade barriers, and King William’s wars on the continent were being paid for through high taxation on the people. The final nail … More The Darien Debacle: Scotland’s imprudent investment

Musings on Models

Since the dawn of time, humanity has been finding ways to make sense of the reality we exist in. The fundamental nature of science is that it discards old models and replaces it with new ones, sometimes in a manner that is incremental and sometimes turning our understanding of reality on its head. Some ideas like Alchemy, Geo-centrism, … More Musings on Models

Mungerisms

Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and longtime partner of Warren Buffett needs no introduction. Over the years, Munger’s legend has grown to the point where he has a fan-club of his own, revered for his rationality and sheer breadth of knowledge, spanning nearly ever major discipline. Here are some of my favourite Munger … More Mungerisms